Friday, October 10, 2008

Who does Virginia Voter Registration Favor?

Virginia voter registrations closed on Monday 10/3/08. Today I created a table comparing locality by locality the number of active voter registrations recorded by the Virginia State Board of Elections and the 2007 Populations estimates for adults 18+ available from the University of Virginia's Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service. The average percentage of registrations compared to adults 18+ for the Commonwealth was was 81.21%. Below the fold I show the localities where the registrations were different from the average by 10% or more. These localities are compared with the party who registered a majority of votes in the 2006 election for senator and the 2004 election for president. Does this comparison predict possible outcomes on Nov 4? Give us your analysis!

In this table the columns are the locality ID, locality name, registration difference from Commonwealth Average, 2004 and 2006 party with majority vote.
26 Charles City +10 D D
45 Craig +10 R R
75 Goochland +10 R R
81 Greensville -15 D D
91 Highland +16 R R
93 Isle of Wight +15 R R
95 James City _16 R R
121 Montgomery -14 R R
149 Prince George -12 R R
157 Rappahanock +17 R R
159 Richmond -16 R R
181 Surry +13 D D
183 Sussex -11 D D
195 Wise -10 R R
199 York +12 R R
610 Falls Church +10 D D
620 Franklin +11 D D
630 Fredicksburg -13 D D
660 Harrisonburg -33 R R
678 Lexington -31 D D
685 Manassas Park -24 R R
710 Norfolk -20 D D
735 Poquoson +16 R R
750 Radford -29 R D
830 Williamsburg -16 D D
840 Winchester -14 R R

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