What Obama voters believe - Hope vs. Reality
After hours of discussion along the political trail this season, I have tried to synthesize what democratic voters imagine will happen next year if Barack Obama is elected along with increased democratic majorities in the Congress. I have also tried to reconcile these imaginings to the realities these voters appear to have willfully overlooked.
Iran:
Hope: Iran and its president will be so exuberant over the prospect of sitting down with a President Obama without precondition that they will give up their nuclear weapons program, agree to peace with Israel, cut off funding for Hezbollah in Lebanon, withdraw weapons, troops and support for Shiite militants and clerics in Iraq and be satisfied with being admitted into the presence of the one.
Reality: Iranian national interest is to control Iraq and all of the oil producing region in the middle east including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the Gulf States, and the Caucasus. This puts them on a collision course with the countries they covet. Development of a nuclear weapon is a tool to accomplishing these ends. Overlaying this national interest is the Islamic vision of Iran's president to hasten the coming of the apocalypse and the Shiite victory of Sunni Islam and the greater and lesser Satans (America and Israel). No agreement will be reached with Iran and President Obama will either not be able to meet or will be humiliated.
Iraq
Hope: U.S. troops will be withdrawn overnight on January 21, 2009 and all spending on the war effort will end, freeing up $10 billion per month. None of the troops or military effort will need to be shifted to Afghanistan. There will be no negative consequences to the withdrawal of American forces from Iraq.
Reality: American forces have secured a military victory over Al Qaeda in Iraq and have laid the ground work for a lasting peace which can be implemented among Sunni, Shia and Kurdish communities absent outside interference from Iran. American forces under General David Petraeus are implementing plans to secure Afghanistan from a combined Al Qaeda, Taliban force, including efforts to swing tribal leader allegiances to the Karzai government in return for security and economic assistance. The withdrawal of American forces in Iraq will convince Afghani tribal leaders that any American promises are unreliable and they like their Sunni brethren in Iraq will be left to the mercies of Iran and its Shia allies. The Afghan government will collapse. American military spending in both Iraq and Afghanistan includes military pay, payment for contractors, weapons, and equipment. Unless total U.S. forces are reduced the need to pay them will continue. Reductions in spending for contractors, weapons and equipment will result in thousands of lost jobs in the U.S. during what are already difficult economic times.
Economy:
Hope: Taxes on the poor and middle class working families will be reduced, foreclosures and credit card collections will halt, health care will be free to all, all those who want a job will be employed by the federal government but jobs will not be required to pay for housing, fuel or food, and unions will be able to require all remaining workers to join unions and pay forced union dues. Teacher pay will be increased to the national average everywhere by direct federal subsidy.
Reality: The federal government can reduce taxes on poor and middle class working families through increases in income taxes on the wealthy and those who are not in working families (investors, the elderly, singles, teens). The increase in taxes on the elderly who will see the results as lower retirement income, and increases in direct taxes on social security and other income will lead to extreme distress in this population group. While taxes on middle class working families can be reduced, there will be many fewer of those families and employment will severely contract as investment dries up and investment funds flow out of the country. A moratorium on foreclosure will make bank, investment and insurance company assets made up of mortgage holdings sink in value, leading to the collapse of hundreds of banks, mortgage and insurance companies. Pension funds will follow them into bankruptcy. Unemployment will rise from the current 6.1% to 15-20% or more. Union membership drives will succeed in adding more workers to the union rolls initially, but total union employment will drop severely as the targeted employers close their doors.
Credit card collection activities will skyrocket as additional consumers fall behind on payments after losing their jobs. The glut of used cars on the market will depress new auto sales and all three U.S. auto makers will cease to exist.
Health care will not be free, as hospitals and doctors still will expect payment in return for providing health services. As hospitals close, health care will be rationed by need, and later by political class. Seniors will be hardest hit as euthanasia is accepted as a voluntary and then mandatory practice. To further limit health costs, pregnancies will be limited moving abortion from a permitted to a required choice.
The moratorium on foreclosures and the increase in unemployment will also have a direct, severe and negative impact on cities and counties. Property tax collections
will decline along with sales taxes, while teacher pay if not entirely funded by the federal government will result in unsustainable unfunded mandates to cities and counties.
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I hope I am entirely wrong in both my perceptions and predictions, but they represent the change I expect from an Obama presidency and a democratic party controlled congress.
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2 comments:
The chief complaint the Republican base has had for the McCain-Pain ticket is that all they do is try to slime Obama, while offering no positive ideas or uplifting vision of their own.
In spite of Obama's details being a little thin, his team has made a good and effective effort to bring forward some workable solutions and have provided a positive path to getting America back on the road to prosperity. Who knows if the ideas will work, but Obama's team is at least willing to give it a try on behalf of all Americans. Millions of Republicans have agreed and are willing to help Obama take a turn at the plate. Let's hope, for the sake of our Nation, that he hits a home run.
Here's a summary of positions offered by the Obama team:
Near term economic relief: $1000 per family energy rebate, penalty free withdrawals from 401Ks, and temporary suspension of minimum distribution requirements for retirement accounts.
Education: Reforms to No Child Left Behind. Bonuses for experienced teachers who mentor new teachers and an $18 billion boost to early childhood programs.
Income Taxes: Tax cut for those earning less than $250,000 a year, while raising the top two marginal rates to 36% and 39.6% (about a five per cent increase). Also, eliminate income taxes for seniors earning less than $50,000 and providing a making work pay initiative that will provide an additional $500 to workers who earn less than $75,000.
Investments: Eliminate capital gains taxes on small and newly started businesses. Five percent increase in long term capital gains taxes for those making over $250,000. Improve retirement security by requiring automatic enrollment of workers in a workplace pension plan or, for companies with out pension plans, enrollment of workers in direct deposit IRA. Provide a savers credit of $500 on the first $1000 saved by those earning less than $75,000.
Health Care: Reduce the number of uninsured by 26 million (down from about 50 million) by providing health insurance subsidies that will reduce typical family health care costs by about $185 per year. Provide a federal program that will make available health insurance for all Americans and require coverage for children.
Energy: 15 Billion per year for ten years to develop alternative energy. Offshore drilling and windfall profits taxes on energy companies.
Housing: Provide judges more flexibility to modify mortgages to allow people to keep their house. Ninety day moratorium on foreclosures and improve the mortgage interest deduction eligibility.
Foreign Policy: Withdraw from Iraq in 16 months, add 7,000 troops to Afghanistan and attack terrorist strongholds in other countries like Pakistan. Will open a dialogue with Cuba, North Korea and Iran and other countries currently seen as hostile to the U.S.
Social Issues: Baby killing is OK, but some restrictions on late term murders. Marriage is between one man and one woman, but supports leaving the decision to approve marriages to the States. Supports civil unions to allow lesbians and male homosexuals to role play as man and wife.
Guns should remain legal with what Obama calls "common sense" limits including the cosmetic limits placed on rifles that are commonly referred to as the "Assault Weapons Ban" and the addition of regulations to help make guns more child proof.
Spending cuts: Wants to have a line-by-line budget review and cut programs deemed as "not working." Supports pay as you go budgeting to reduce deficits and control spending.
Court appointments: Favors "moderate" judges who will use the judge's own values in addition to the Constitution to render opinions. Would favor judges like Breyer, Ginsburg, and Souter.
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Sources: WSJ, Media General News Service and Obama campaign.
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If someone is a single issue voter, Pro Life or gun rights, then Obama is not your candidate. However, if you favor a plan that will get the economy moving again and give a boost in income to the average worker of about $2,185 per year, then Obama is a solid choice, regardless of prior political affiliation.
Mr. Ballance has nicely summarized the pipe dreams Mr. Obama is trying to sell to the American People.
Ballance: Near term economic relief: $1000 per family energy rebate, penalty free withdrawals from 401Ks, and temporary suspension of minimum distribution requirements for retirement accounts.
TFV: An energy rebate as perceived by consumers would encourage the consumption of energy, since the first $1000 per year would be perceived as free. Not a good way to meet his energy independence target. Penalty free withdrawals from 401K's would benefit the rich most (those with the most in a 401K) and encourage disintermediation from banks and insurance companies, that is encourage a further run on weakened banking institutions.
On the other hand the lifting of the requirement to make some minimum withdrawal from 401Ks by age 70.5 will effect so few people as to be meaningless.
Ballance: Education: Reforms to No Child Left Behind. Bonuses for experienced teachers who mentor new teachers and an $18 billion boost to early childhood programs.
TVF: The federal government does not pay teacher salaries, it is paid by state and local government. Increases in teacher pay funded by the federal government will increase the unfunded retirement liabilities of state and local governments already under stress. Early childhood education programs funded directly by the federal government are a sop to the teacher unions, and do not provide parents with freedom of choice. This could be accomplished by providing early childhood education vouchers, but Mr. Obama's teacher union supporters don't like that idea.
Ballance: Income Taxes: Tax cut for those earning less than $250,000 a year, while raising the top two marginal rates to 36% and 39.6% (about a five per cent increase). Also, eliminate income taxes for seniors earning less than $50,000 and providing a making work pay initiative that will provide an additional $500 to workers who earn less than $75,000.
TVF: Actually any tax cuts would come on top of a massive tax increase for all by allowing the current tax reductions to expire in 2010. This includes increasing the marginal tax rates for everyone by restoring the current 10% lowest bracket rate to 15% an increase in the tax for the lowest wage earners of 50%. The current top two tax brackets for married filers are:
# 33% on the income between $200,300 and $357,700; plus $44,828.00
# 35% on the income over $357,700; plus $96,770.00
An increase in the 33% bracket to 36% is not a five percent jump but a 9% increase for those who are not math challenged. (36/33 equals 1.09) The increase in the 35% bracket to 39.6% is also not a five percent jump but a thirteen percent jump in tax owed.
Ballance: Investments: Eliminate capital gains taxes on small and newly started businesses. Five percent increase in long term capital gains taxes for those making over $250,000. Improve retirement security by requiring automatic enrollment of workers in a workplace pension plan or, for companies with out pension plans, enrollment of workers in direct deposit IRA. Provide a savers credit of $500 on the first $1000 saved by those earning less than $75,000.
TVF: the increase in the capital gains tax from 15 to 20 percent rate is a tax increase of 33%. It would fall most heavily on seniors who depend on pension income to supplement their social security. The savers plan is unlikely to be of practical value to those earning less than 75,000 who are currently under economic stress.
Ballance:Health Care: Reduce the number of uninsured by 26 million (down from about 50 million) by providing health insurance subsidies that will reduce typical family health care costs by about $185 per year. Provide a federal program that will make available health insurance for all Americans and require coverage for children.
TVF: 11 million of the 47 million uninsured are illegal aliens. Another 6-8 million are children already eligible for SCHIPS or Medicaid coverage but whose parents have chosen not to enroll them. Another 6-10 million of the uninsured are in household earning over 75,000 per year who may feel they can pay for their own healthcare directly without purchasing insurance. For lower income families, reducing the cost of health care premiums by $3.56 a week is not going to encourage them to buy health insurance if they have declined it now. Theses same families will not be pleased to find that Senator Obama's mandate to cover their children will result in fines, penalties, or jail time for them.
Ballance: Energy: 15 Billion per year for ten years to develop alternative energy. Offshore drilling and windfall profits taxes on energy companies.
TVF: If alternative energy would be a financial success on an investment of 1.5 billion per year, the private sector would be deep into making those investment. Senator Obama is instead proposing handouts to projects of favored constituents that will not succeed.
Ballance: Housing: Provide judges more flexibility to modify mortgages to allow people to keep their house. Ninety day moratorium on foreclosures and improve the mortgage interest deduction eligibility.
TVF: Both of these proposals will make the entire portfolio of mortgages entirely worthless and destroy the banking system entirely. No owner of a mortgage would be able to determine its value if a court could order a change in interest or principal. The ninety day moratorium has a similarly evil effect on bank assets without providing mortgage holders with any more relief than three more months to hang out before the sheriff evicts them.
Ballance: Foreign Policy: Withdraw from Iraq in 16 months, add 7,000 troops to Afghanistan and attack terrorist strongholds in other countries like Pakistan. Will open a dialogue with Cuba, North Korea and Iran and other countries currently seen as hostile to the U.S.
TVF: Withdraw regardless of the consequences and allow Iran to invade Iraq. Standby while Saudi Arabia supporting Sunni's and Iran supporting Shia engage in a bloody proxy war. Openly attacking Pakistan, Iran, Syria, China and Russia would do well for world peace.
Ballance: Social Issues: Baby killing is OK, but some restrictions on late term murders. Marriage is between one man and one woman, but supports leaving the decision to approve marriages to the States. Supports civil unions to allow lesbians and male homosexuals to role play as man and wife.
TVF: Any government failing to protect the most innocent of its citizens is unworthy of the support of any free people. Marriage is a state issue, but judges could conclude that even where homosexual marriage is not permitted full faith and credit would require a state to recognize such marriages conducted in other states.
Ballance:Guns should remain legal with what Obama calls "common sense" limits including the cosmetic limits placed on rifles that are commonly referred to as the "Assault Weapons Ban" and the addition of regulations to help make guns more child proof.
TVF: Mr. Obama does not then support the Supreme Court decision that citizens have a right to own weapons be able to defend themselves in their own homes.
Ballance: Spending cuts: Wants to have a line-by-line budget review and cut programs deemed as "not working." Supports pay as you go budgeting to reduce deficits and control spending.
TVF: Even a democratic congress will not give this to Obama, it would weaken their base of power. Don't hold your breath for this to pass.
Ballance:Court appointments: Favors "moderate" judges who will use the judge's own values in addition to the Constitution to render opinions. Would favor judges like Breyer, Ginsburg, and Souter.
TVF: The primary argument against such use of the judge's own values is that the constitution exists by the consent of the people. If the people did not understand the constitution to mean something when they consented to it, it can not mean that thing because of a judge's own values or it is meaningless as a restraint on government.
Mr. Obama's policies are a hodgepodge of warmed over communism laced with disgust for a free people,tainted with an unvarnished antipathy for the U.S. Constitution and served up in a warm bowl of economic ignorance.
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