Update: Israel, Gaza and Iran in Conflict

We continue our update of our analysis of strategic events and objectives related to the conflict between Israel, Gaza and Iran.

One of the contentions between the parties to the Gaza dispute is that Hamas and the residents of Gaza are attacking Israel because Israel is an occupying power. This contention predates the current conflict. It is worth considering just what Israel is occupying. Prior to the movement of tanks and other ground forces into Gaza this weekend, there were no Israeli forces in Gaza, and no Israeli citizens living there. All of the territory of Gaza was under the administrative control of the Gaza government with Hamas as the elected party. In that sense no occupation could be described.

CNN recognized that there is some ambiguity in the discussion of Gaza as occupied territory and addresses that in an online article today. One significant reminder in the article highlights the meaning of occupied territory from the point of view of Hamas:

To Hamas, Israel's "occupation" is not limited to Gaza and the West Bank. Like many other Islamic militant groups, Hamas views Israel's presence as the de facto occupier of greater Palestine. Hamas' charter calls for the destruction of Israel altogether.
As former Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu said on CNN's "Late Edition with Wolf Blitzer" on Sunday, "They say, 'Look, we're firing these rockets to liberate occupied Palestine, occupied Ashkelon, occupied Ashdod, occupied Tel Aviv. To them, any place that Israel sits on, any square inch of Israel is occupied territory, and Israel has to be destroyed.'"

SkyNews today speculates on the possible endgame for the current fighting. Of particular note related to our earlier analysis, SkyNews suggests that a newly inaugurated President Obama will not want the conflict and its related news to overshadow the beginning of his presidency.

There is also the inauguration of President elect Barack Obama on January 20. The Obama team will undoubtedly have signalled to Israel that it doesn't want this to spill over into the first few days of the Presidency. Mr Obama's in-tray has Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, North Korea and Pakistan in it. The Gaza conflict may have an effect on some of those issues, but in the scheme of geopolitics it is a secondary issue for the superpower.

The deal is taking shape. A joint ceasefire, the opening of the Gaza/Israel border to massive humanitarian aid, and the securing of the Egyptian border. The latter is the sticking point. Israel is not interested in having a short-term ceasefire. One source tells me that Prime Minister Olmert told President Sarkozy 'We don't
need a monitoring force to count how many missiles they fire at us, we can do that ourselves'. The Israelis want one of the three following things:

1. A force which will actively check for smuggling tunnels and weapons building. This might even by Palestinians from the Palestinian Authority.
2. A canal flooded with water from the Mediterranean to prevent tunnels being built.
3. A underground wall to prevent tunnelling. This would entail outside engineers building it, something the Israelis could support.

The Egyptian government, which loathes and fears Hamas, may finally be ready to play its part and sign up to sealing the border.

It's all coming together - but it'll take time.